10/26/2009

By BOB LEWIS  / Associated Press

As late as spring, many Democrats felt good about peeling away even more Republican seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and dared speak of recapturing a clear majority for the first time in a dozen years.

Not any more.

With polls showing the Democrats' statewide ticket headed by gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds trailing their GOP adversaries and with the ebbing popularity of President Barack Obama and the Democratic Congress, Republicans and even some Democrats expect GOP gains in the House this fall.

"It's going to depend on the Obama voters," said Barnie K. Day, a 56-year-old Democrat and sometime columnist who retired from his House seat in 2001.

Last fall, Obama's youthful army of activists registered more than 400,000 new voters in Virginia and delivered most of them on Election Day in a Democratic tsunami, swamping a GOP that had not lost a presidential race in the state since 1964.

"This year, there are indications that the Obama voters might be sitting this one out," Day said in an interview from his home in Meadows of Dan.

House Democratic Leader Ward L. Armstrong was not among those predicting a House Democratic takeover in those heady January days when Obama was sworn in. He won't make predictions now, either, even to rebut the best guess of his House GOP counterpart, Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith of Salem, that Republicans will gain two seats.

"Invariably the bad environment's going to show up," Armstrong said. "You're going to have a great year like we did in '08, and you're going to have a not-so-great year like we've got in '09, and you've got to be willing and able to deal with both."

Republicans are targeting first-term Democrats they deem vulnerable in GOP-friendly districts in Hampton Roads, Fairfax County and southwestern Virginia.

Prominent among them:

Del. Joe Bouchard, who's in a furious fight for his seat against Republican Chris Stolle, a Virginia Beach obstetrician-gynecologist who retired as a Navy doctor four years ago. He's the brother of five-term Republican state Sen. Kenneth W. Stolle.

Del. Bobby Mathiesen, another Virginia Beach freshman, faces Republican City Councilman Ron Villanueva. The districts Bouchard and Mathiesen won in 2007 had both been in GOP hands.

Del. Margi Vanderhye is being challenged for her Fairfax County seat by Republican Barbara Comstock, a Bush administration senior Justice Department official and former opposition research specialist for the Republican National Committee. Aggregate fundraising by both candidates topped $900,000 by October and is likely to exceed $1 million.

Del. Paul Nichols of Prince William County won the seat Republican Michelle McQuigg vacated in 2007, and now well-funded Republican Richard Anderson, a retired Air Force veteran and former senior Pentagon official, is trying to take it back.

Other races that have Democrats nervous: Del. Dan Bowling's race against Republican James W. Morefield in Tazewell; two-term Del. Shannon Valentine's bruising contest against T. Scott Garrett in Lynchburg; and Del. David Poisson's race in Loudoun County against Republican Thomas A. Greason.

"All the polling data we're seeing says we're close, but then all the people who say they're undecided might turn out and vote Democratic, then we don't gain any seats," Griffith said.

Democrats are targeting Republican incumbents in Democrat-friendly regions of northern Virginia and in Newport News. Among them:

Del. David Albo, a Republican finishing an eighth term from a Fairfax County district that trends Democratic, is a biennial target, and Democrat David Werkheiser has already put $500,000 into challenging Albo. Aggregate spending in that contest topped $956,000 by the end of September.

Del. Phil Hamilton, the No. 2 Republican on the budget-writing Appropriations Committee and a seeming heir to its chairmanship, is in a sprint with Democrat Robin Abbott, a consumer rights lawyer. Hamilton is the subject of investigations by a House ethics panel and a federal grand jury into allegations that he arranged a $40,000-a-year job for himself at Old Dominion University as he steered hundreds of thousands of dollars in appropriations to the Norfolk school. Spending in that race topped $828,000 last month.

Del. Tom Rust, another Fairfax County Republican who has hung on in Democratic territory, is seeking a fifth term against Democrat Stevens Miller, a Loudoun County Board of Supervisors member who had raised nearly $340,000 in a contest that's already burned through $804,000.

Democrats also like their chances to pick up an open Prince William County seat that Del. Jeff Frederick gave up to serve full time as chairman of the Virginia Republican Party. That was before the party's ruling central committee ousted him in April. Luke E. Torian, a Baptist pastor from Woodbridge, faces Republican Rafael Lopez, a Bolivian immigrant and former town councilman in Dumfries.

Another competitive open seat race pits Roanoke Councilwoman Gwen Mason, a Democrat, against Botetourt County Republican Bill Cleaveland for the seat of retiring Republican Del. Bill Fralin. 

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